The two most popular long-term football markets are the total points quotes for the individual teams and the championship index for the different divisions. The joy of spreads and particularly markets such as total points quotes is that the gambler does not have to get it exactly right. If you like the look of a team and buy their season points, they do not have to win the league for you to make money.
They may only have to come mid-table. If you think a team will do badly, again, they do not have to be relegation candidates for you to see a handsome profit. The only requirement is that the team you bet on do better or worse than the spread firms expect. Working out quotes for season points is perhaps best considered by breaking down a team’s performance into points per game—how many they have already earned in a season and how many they need to earn to reach a quote.
In broad terms, a point a game is relegation form; two points a game or more and you are looking at championship material. It is not rocket science to realise that one of the keys for all season points quotes is a team’s performance the previous year. In particular, decent form in the second half of the season can suggest a team which is starting to get its act together and is ready to put in a push for a promotion place the following season.